Dubai broke records for a fifth consecutive year in 2025. The Dubai Land Department, via DXB Interact, registered about 205,100 residential sales worth AED 539.9 billion, up 18.33% in volume and 24.67% in value. Betterhomes counted a record AED 547 billion across roughly 203,000 transactions. From 84,000 transactions in 2021 to over 200,000 in 2025, the city has effectively reclassified itself from a boom-bust emerging market into a global destination.
The supply number everyone quotes
The dominant 2026 narrative is the handover wave. Fitch Ratings put around 120,000 units scheduled for delivery in 2026, splitting roughly into 99,686 apartments and 15,284 villas, and projected a moderate correction of up to 15% after a near-60% run-up since 2022.
But Dubai rarely delivers what it schedules. By one accounting, only about 62% of 2025's anticipated units were projected to complete, and for 2026 just 48% of the larger pipeline is expected to land. Fitch itself notes only 97,000 of 174,000 projected units, around 56%, were actually delivered across 2022 to 2024. The gross number frightens; the net number is what moves prices.
A two-speed market
Segment matters more than the headline. Fitch projects luxury corrections of just 10 to 12%, while mid-market apartments face sharper 15 to 18% pressure. Secondary off-plan resales in Sobha Hartland, DAMAC Lagoons, and JLT have already transacted at or below launch prices. Prime, meanwhile, set its own record: Knight Frank reports USD 10m-plus sales hit USD 9.05 billion in 2025.
The forecast range is the story
ValuStrat projects roughly 10% citywide capital-value growth in 2026, with villas at 17.7%. Cushman & Wakefield Core sees mid-single digits.
Price appreciation is forecast to moderate to around 5 to 8 per cent in 2026, a marked slowdown from the 12 to 22 per cent recorded during 2024 to 2025. (Cushman & Wakefield Core)
Knight Frank is more cautious still, forecasting around 3% in prime and roughly 1% in the mainstream market by year end. The honest read is a range, not a number: villas and luxury resilient, peripheral mid-market apartments exposed. The supports are real too, population growth near 225,000 in 2026, zero income tax, and the Golden Visa, which is why most analysts call it a soft landing rather than a crash.